Is Your Blue City Stuck in a “Doom Loop?”

You know that big blue city politicians have demanded ever higher taxation while providing fewer services, like policing, to their constituents. Now streets of cities like San Francisco are filled with the homeless and drug addicted, and stores and offices are under siege by criminals. Josh Koehn and Kevin Truong of The San Francisco Standard have dubbed the city’s current status a “doom loop.” They write:

The loss of businesses and in-office workers since the pandemic has kneecapped the flow of tax revenue to City Hall, and foot traffic to small businesses in the area has evaporated. San Francisco is staring down the barrel of a nearly $800 million deficit, and increasingly hyperbolic concerns of a real estate collapse, death spiral and doom loop are becoming commonplace.

So many people have fled San Francisco’s offices that 10% of unionized construction workers in the city are now out of work. That’s worse than the 2008 real estate crisis, reports Garrett Leahy, also in The San Francisco Standard. He writes:

The Standard spoke to three contractor unions that say a combined total of 1,200 unionized tradespeople are out of work due to the Downtown doom loop. The actual number of out-of-work tradespeople, including non-unionized workers, is likely to be much higher, unions say.

Gonzalez said the tally of roughly 1,200 out-of-work construction workers comes from a late April survey of all 27 unions’ unemployed member lists he conducted.

“About 10% of the unionized construction workforce in San Francisco is unemployed,” Gonzalez said.

“It’s worse than 2008, just in terms of the extent of time and amount of people out of work,” said Larry Mazzola, a business manager for plumbers union UA Local 38, which has 200 members currently out of work. Between September 2006 and the last quarter of 2008, approximately 780,000 U.S. construction jobs disappeared, according to the International Labor Organization.

San Francisco carpenter Ronald Garibaldi said he’s been out of work since Covid restrictions began in March 2020, despite many attempts to get work since then.

“It’s like a brick wall, man,” Garibaldi said. “It wasn’t easy then, and it still isn’t easy getting work.”

The exodus of wealthy tech office workers has begun to affect the city’s retail market as its customers leave. The Standard reports that 23 retailers near San Francisco’s famous Union Square have closed or plan to since 2020, writing:

The closure, which was first reported by SFGate, is the latest blow to San Francisco’s troubled downtown retail sector. Last week, Nordstrom announced it was closing its store at the Westfield mall on Market Street, along with a nearby Nordstrom Rack. In April, Whole Foods closed its Market Street outlet after just a year.

In a message to SFGate, the company blamed the decision to close on a lack of foot traffic Downtown and safety and perception issues that have hampered the neighborhood’s economic recovery.

Announced	Store	Address
May 2023	Coco Republic	55 Stockton St.
May 2023	T-Mobile	1 Stockton St.
May 2023	Nordstrom	865 Market St.
May 2023	Nordstrom Rack	901 Market St.
May 2023	Saks Off 5th	901 Market St.
April 2023	The Ordinary	210 Grant Ave
April 2023	Anthropologie	880 Market St.
April 2023	Office Depot	33 Third St.
March 2023	Amazon Go	98 Post St.
March 2023	Arc’teryx	300 Grant Ave.
February 2023	The RealReal	253 Post St.
January 2023	CB2	34 Ellis St.
January 2023	Banana Republic	256 Grant Ave.
January 2023	Athleta	255 Sutter St.
November 2022	The Container Store	29 4th St.
February 2022	Crate & Barrel	55 Stockton St.
January 2022	Abercrombie & Fitch	865 Market St.
November 2021	DSW	400 Post St.
August 2021	Disney	39 Stockton St.
February 2021	Uniqlo	111 Powell St.
January 2021	Marshall’s	760 Market St.
November 2020	H & M	150 Powell St.
August 2020	Gap	890 Market St.